Doherty Modelling National Plan and Addendum

On 2 July 2021, the National Cabinet agreed to formulate a four-phase National Plan to transition Australia's National COVID Response (the National Plan) from its current pre-vaccination settings (focusing on continued suppression of community transmission) to post-vaccination settings (focused on prevention of serious illness, hospitalisation and fatality, and the public health management of other infectious diseases).

The National Cabinet asked the COVID-19 Risk Analysis and Response Taskforce to make recommendations on finalising the plan, including vaccination targets for each phase based on epidemiological modelling of the Delta variant by the Doherty Institute.

On 6 August 2021, the National Cabinet agreed to adopt in full an updated National Plan, based on the Doherty Institute’s findings. This follows the National Cabinet’s agreement in principle to the updated National Plan on 30 July 2021.

The Doherty Institute’s report, addendum, erratum and presentation on key findings are below. These versions incorporate previous errata and corrections to data mapping as of 10 August 2021. While some individual data items have changed from the previous version, the conclusions have not changed.

 

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